Thursday, October 15, 2009

It's Cold Outside - We Need a Hot Stove Blockbuster

OK impatient Mets fans.  What do think of this?  We're taking on salary and getting two potentially "great" players for 4 prospects. 

Houston trades left fielder Carlos Lee and pitcher Roy Oswalt to the Mets for Oliver Perez , minor leaguers Brad Holt, Scott Moviel, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Ruben Tejada.

Let's analyze this trade.
  • The Astros are looking to cut payroll.
  • Carlos Lee is due approximately $36 million over the next two years (btw - Lee does have a no trade clause).  He will start next season as a 33 year old.  He hit .300 with an OBP of .343. He hit 26 HR and 102 RBI and is a below average left fielder.  Alternatively, you could try signing Matt Holliday for approximately $18M/year for 5+ years.
  • Roy Oswalt is due approximately $33 million over the next two years.  He will start next year as a 32 year old who had an off year with 30 starts but only 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA (3 complete games).  In '08, he had 32 starts and was 17-10 with a 3.54 ERA.
  • The Mets would be taking on $34.5M in each of '10 and '11.
  • Trading Perez would send back $12 million for each of two years.
  • The net result is +$22.5M/year in salaries to the Mets and -$22.5M/year in salaries to the Astros.  
  • Holt,  Moviel, Nieuwenhuis, and Tejada; good to mid-level prospects give the Astros value for their stars but more importantly the Astros shed $22.5M in salaries.
  • The Mets accomplish their objective of adding a power hitting left fielder and a reliable #2/#3 starting pitcher.
  • No long term killer contracts for Lee and Oswalt - 2 years each.
Certainly different players could be substituted for the ones I'm suggesting.  I'm no expert in evaluating talent for trades, especially in conjunction with how important salary reductions are to a team.

What do you think?  Are we giving up too much?  or not enough.  Or am I way off.

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